Savills expects average UK house prices to fall by 1.5% in 2027 before returning to growth in 2028. Its forecast, published on 4 November 2026, puts the five-year increase to 2031 at 15.8%. These are projections, not recorded price changes or a promise about an individual home.
The research covers the mainstream second-hand market. Savills explicitly cautions that new-build values may behave differently. Its outlook depends on borrowing becoming more affordable over the medium term, with energy markets and political uncertainty among the risks that could change the path.
Under its central forecast, prices rise by 3.5% in 2028, followed by 5% in both 2029 and 2030 and 3% in 2031. The agency expects a stronger five-year performance in more affordable northern markets than in London. Readers should keep the publication date in mind when comparing these assumptions with subsequent economic announcements.
How to use the forecast
For someone planning a move, the useful question is how a range of outcomes affects their own transaction. A national percentage cannot establish the appropriate asking price for a particular house. Compare recent completed sales with similar size, condition and location, and ask agents to explain which evidence supports their appraisal.
A seller buying another property should also consider both sides of the move. A lower sale price and a lower purchase price can have different effects depending on the gap between the two homes. Moving costs, the mortgage required and the available cash reserve belong in the same calculation.
For buyers, it is sensible to test affordability using an actual mortgage illustration rather than a predicted future rate. Keep any decision to wait separate from assumptions that a cheaper loan or a lower asking price will definitely become available. Personal circumstances and the suitability of the home still matter.
Landlords can use forecasts as one scenario in a wider assessment, alongside achievable rent, maintenance, finance costs and periods without a tenant. Expected capital growth should not be treated as cash available to pay today's bills.
Source: Savills, UK housing market recovery expected to be delayed until 2028, 4 November 2026. The practical considerations above are Property Perpetuity editorial commentary, not a valuation or personal financial recommendation.